How Demographic Changes Drive Internal Migration Decline Among Heterosexual Couples: A Cohort-Based Approach

• In Event: 40465 - Demography and the Future of Work

Abstract

The decline in internal migration among heterosexual married couples has often been linked to changes in within-couple dynamics. However, a potentially overlooked factor is demographic change. This study employs a cohort analysis to investigate how delayed marriage and increased cohabitation have contributed to the decline in internal migration. Comparing late baby boomers with millennials, preliminary findings reveal: (1) millennials marry, on average, two years later than boomers, with approximately 10% cohabiting without transitioning to marriage; (2) millennials have lower migration rates across commuting zones, particularly those with college education; and (3) these patterns may be interconnected. Future multivariate and decomposition analysis will explore the specific impact of demographic changes on migration.

Author

• Haowen Zheng, Cornell University