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Mapping the American TERFscape with New National Survey Data: A Feminist Divide or a Broader Panic?

Mon, August 11, 2:00 to 3:00pm, East Tower, Hyatt Regency Chicago, Floor: Ballroom Level/Gold, Grand Ballroom A

Abstract

This paper uses recently collected (October 2024) nationally-representative data (n=3,464) from the American Mosaic Project (Wave 3) to examine the socio-political and ideological contours of what we label the "TERFscape"—broadly feminist-aligned individuals or spaces in the American collective consciousness that exclude transgender individuals. While trans-exclusionary “radical” feminism (TERF) has received considerable attention the past decade, existing studies have primarily been qualitative and focused on more explicit or fervent expressions. This analysis substantially expands empirical scope by systematically assessing how trans exclusion intersects with sympathy toward feminism among more ordinary or “regular” Americans. Specifically, we analyze how U.S. adults who either (1) agree that feminists share their vision of American society or (2) believe ensuring women’s rights is very important differ with respect to the additional question of whether or not they also believe transgender Americans share their vision of American society. We find 20.5% of Americans who believe in a feminist vision of society and 26.2% of those who consider women’s rights important hold anti-trans beliefs. Multivariate analyses indicate these intra-feminist trans-exclusionary attitudes are shaped more by ideological commitments—opposition to same-sex marriage, beliefs about masculinity being in crisis, and negative orientations toward diversity, multiculturalism, secularization, racial-justice movements, and the teaching of inequalities—than by demographic patterns, opinions about traditional gender roles, or even political affiliation. By offering the first nationally representative portrait of this broader TERFscape, this study documents fractures within broadly feminist-aligned cultural orientations and reveals that corresponding trans-exclusionary beliefs are embedded in wider cultural and political anxieties rather than feminist ideology alone. Ultimately, for those who see feminism as a vehicle for salvaging or building liberatory futures in the present socio-political climate—but recognize trans exclusion as a roadblock within feminism’s discursive spaces—our findings shed significant light on both the barriers to and opportunities.

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