Livelihood Choices and Fertility in Rural China

• In Event: 40861 - Section on Sociology of Population Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 4: Migration and Migrant Outcomes

Abstract

Previous studies on rural-to-urban migration and fertility mainly show that migration negatively impacts fertility. Theoretical perspectives explain this through disruption, assimilation, and self-selection. However, the reference group is often unclear, and it's uncertain whether men and women respond differently. This study contributes to the literature by extending the focus to distant migration, local non-farm, and farm livelihoods, examining how shifts among these choices affect men's and women's fertility desires and realization of first and the second child. Additionally, we explore how gender role attitudes and within-family gender bargaining power can mediate or moderate the relationship between livelihood choices and fertility. Data are from 2014, 2018, 2020 and 2022 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The preliminary findings show that distant non-farm work negatively affects men’s fertility intentions and likelihood of having their first child. Local non-farm work negatively affects women’s likelihood of having a second child. These findings also illustrate how livelihood choices, education, and gendered roles interact to shape fertility intentions and outcomes in China. This study contributes to the theoretical debates on low fertility in less developed settings and has important policy implications by providing insights into why rural people are becoming less inclined to have multiple children, despite cultural traditions favoring larger families.

Authors

• Yuying Tong, The Chinese University of Hong Kong

• Mengke Zhao