Revisiting the Relationship between Marriage and Childbearing in Low-Fertility East Asia: Evidence from Japan

• In Event: 41003 - Institutions, Values, and Family Changes in Asia

Abstract

In this study, we propose and evaluate a new hypothesis for understanding “lowest-low” fertility in East Asia, focusing on the strong link between the desire for children and marrying. Recognizing that later and less marriage is the primary reason for low total fertility rates in these societies, we hypothesize that marriage decisions are partially influenced by changes in intentions or incentives to have a child. We evaluate this hypothesis by focusing on Japan, a society where parenthood plays an integral part in the “package” of normative family expectations and obligations that accompany marriage, especially for women. Applying discrete-time marriage hazard models to nationally representative longitudinal data, we find that stronger fertility desires were significantly associated with earlier transition to marriage net of marriage desires. We also find that the association is weaker for women, suggesting that the bundled expectations regarding family among women suppresses the role of fertility desires in family formation. Lastly, we find that positive fertility desires are associated with more engagement in partner-seeking activities. These results provide important insights into ongoing policy debates over declining fertility in East Asia, where scholars criticize pro-natalist policies designed to promote childbearing among married couples as mistargeted.

Authors

• Fumiya Uchikoshi, Harvard University

• Ryota Mugiyama, Gakushuin University

• Shohei Yoda, National Institute of Population and Social Security, Tokyo

• James M. Raymo, Princeton University