Ability, social origin, and socioeconomic expectations: do cognitive skills shape expectations to future socioeconomic position?

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Abstract

Students’ expectations about their future socioeconomic position influence their educational choices, motivation, and career planning. While education is often framed as a pathway for social mobility, students’ perceptions may diverge from this idea, particularly in contexts where structural barriers persist. This study examines the relationship between students' cognitive skills and their socioeconomic expectations, exploring whether education is perceived as a mechanism for meritocratic advancement or as a reinforcement of social inequalities.
Using data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2022, the study addresses three key questions: (1) To what extent are cognitive skills predictive of socioeconomic position expectations? (2) How does social origin moderate this relationship? (3) How do these patterns vary across national contexts? A multilevel modeling approach incorporates both individual- and country-level factors, including educational expansion, tracking systems, and economic conditions. The study is expected to find a positive association between cognitive skills and students' expectations of future socioeconomic position. At the same time, social origin moderates this relationship, reinforcing a "glass ceiling" for disadvantaged students and a "glass floor" for the privileged. Additionally, anticipated cross-national differences in expectation patterns may suggest that institutional contexts shape students' expectations of socioeconomic position at the age of 30.
By bridging sociology of education and social stratification, this study contributes to debates on educational inequality and mobility. It provides insights into how young people navigate tensions between individual agency and structural constraints, shedding light on the role of education in shaping perceived opportunities for social mobility.

Author

• Olga Murasova, University of Wisconsin-Madison