Abduction and the Serendipity Pattern

• In Event: 30402 - New Insights from Multiple Methods and Measures

Abstract

In their highly cited Sociological Theory article, Timmermans and Tavory (2012: 180) explained that, “Abductive analysis is a qualitative data analysis approach,” defining abduction as a “creative inferential process aimed at producing new hypotheses and theories based on surprising research evidence.” But is abduction limited to qualitative research? We posit from this definition that it is not necessarily, and compare this now dominant paradigm in qualitative methodology and training to classic discussions of the serendipity pattern associated with quantitative analysis, first forwarded by Robert K. Merton. This classic work, coupled with his later writings on serendipity reveals what we see as an eerie similarity with modern descriptions of abductive reasoning and logic. Abductive analysis highlights the importance of theoretical insights and contributions that emerge through the discovery of surprising or puzzling findings. These findings alone are insufficient for sociological discovery; they require combination with "theoretical sensitivity" to fully understand the implications and underlying contexts of the empirical puzzles. Abduction, in other words, helps the sociologist make new connections between things that offer valuable theoretical insight. Correspondingly, the etiology of serendipity acknowledges the two-sided character of quantitative research. The serendipity pattern is defined by the combination of "chance," via surprising research findings; alongside "sagacity," or the necessity of being perceptive or discerning as demonstrated by possession of the wisdom necessary to interpret the meanings associated with some chance occurrence. We illustrate this correspondence by comparing examples from our own experiences conducting qualitative and quantitative sociological research. We further discuss the role of abduction and serendipity in contemporary quantitative analyses.

Authors

• Steve McDonald, North Carolina State University

• Michaela DeSoucey, North Carolina State University