How Sibling Composition Shapes Chinese Youth’s Fertility Ideals

• In Event: 50261 - Family Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 3: Fertility Intentions

Abstract

Understanding how fertility ideals are shaped is crucial for examining the persistence of low fertility and its potential reinforcement across generations, especially as ultra-low fertility persists in East Asia. While intergenerational fertility transmission suggests that family structure influences fertility ideals, its relevance in low-fertility societies remains uncertain. Despite recognition that early socialization plays a role, most studies infer its effects from adult fertility behaviors rather than directly examining them during formative years. This study addresses these gaps by analyzing a cohort of unmarried youth aged 10–22 using nationally representative data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and employing family-level random-effects models to assess how sibling composition—including sibling size, birth order, and sibling gender—shapes fertility ideals. Results show that having more siblings is associated with a higher ideal number of children, with stronger effects among males, those from families with lower-educated parents, and individuals in regions with stricter fertility policies. While the effect weakens as youth transition from early adolescence to young adulthood, it remains durable over time. Additionally, birth order further differentiates preferences, as later-born youth hold higher fertility ideals than firstborns. Gender composition adds further nuance, suggesting differentiated socialization experiences. By directly observing fertility preferences during formative years, this study advances research on intergenerational transmission and provides empirical evidence on how early socialization operates in a low-fertility context, underscoring the persistent yet dynamic role of family environment in shaping fertility attitudes.

Author

• Feng Wei, Johns Hopkins University