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Developing and Testing a Coupled Human and Natural Systems Theory of Social Movements

Tue, August 12, 12:00 to 1:00pm, East Tower, Hyatt Regency Chicago, Floor: Ballroom Level/Gold, Grand Ballroom A

Abstract

Social movement theory has often focused on how social movements mobilize rather than why they emerge. In this paper, we argue that climate change has placed immense stress on social institutions and safety nets, pushing historically vulnerable communities to the breaking point. This crisis has created political opportunities for social movements seeking to challenge the status quo by mobilizing potential activists. This paper develops and tests a Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS) theory of social movements. We explore the concept of Hazard-Impacted Socio-Ecological Systems (HISES)—communities affected by hazards that are not only immediate but also slow-moving, cumulative, or cascading. To test these ideas, we overlay data from the Social, Political, and Economic Event Database Project, Global Surface Temperature Change data, and the World Bank to analyze over 60,000 incidents of social action worldwide between 1946 and 2005. Using linear mixed models and structural equation modeling, we examine how locations experiencing greater temperature fluctuations, weaker social safety nets, and higher dependence on natural resources for livelihoods are more likely to experience both a higher frequency and increased intensity of social movements over time.

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