Mobility Patterns Predict Increasing Political Polarization Between Neighborhoods

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Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between neighborhood mobility patterns and
political polarization in the United States, with a focus on the 2016 and 2020 presidential
elections. Using everyday mobility data from SafeGraph and election results at the census
block group level, we examine how neighborhood disadvantage, measured both
residentially and via mobility ties, predicts shifts in support for Donald Trump. Our findings
demonstrate that predominantly white neighborhoods with mobility connections to
disadvantaged neighborhoods experienced increased Republican voting, while those
connected to more advantaged neighborhoods saw declines in Republican support.
Moreover, we find that mobility-based disadvantage constitutes a growing portion of the
variation in voting patterns across multiple election cycles, indicating a durable and
widening gap in political polarization. Our analysis shows that the vote gap for Republican
candidates between the least and most mobility-disadvantaged White neighborhoods has
expanded from a single-digit difference in 2012 to a 40% gap in 2020. These results suggest
that mobility patterns are especially strong predictors of increasing political polarization
beyond the static characteristics of residential neighborhoods.

Authors

• Karl Vachuska, University of Wisconsin-Madison

• Meghann Norden-Bright, University of Wisconsin-Madison