An Examination of the Macro-level Factors Impacting the U.S. Marriage Decline: A County-level Analysis, 1980-2010

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  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 2: Marriage, Cohabitation & Divorce

Abstract

Marriage rates have been declining since the 1970s. Various explanations have been provided to account for this decline such as weakened economic conditions, changing educational patterns, and shifting cultural perspectives related to marriage. Yet, there have been fewer studies that have examined changes in the prevalence of marriage over an extended period of time at the county level. This aggregate level study seeks to identify the factors associated with the prevalence of marriage and how these factors may impact the decline in the proportion married over time. County level data from the U.S. Census on demographic, economic, and educational characteristics as well as data on religious traditions from The Association of Religion Data Archives are included in the present study. Fixed effects panel modeling is used to assess change in the prevalence of marriage at the county level over time. Lag predictor variables are also used in the analysis to account for potential reverse causality between rates of marriage and different socio-economic and demographic indicators. Results indicate that in counties where the average number of children per family household was higher, there was a steeper decline in the prevalence of marriage. However, the decline in marriage was slower in counties with a higher proportion of individuals having at least a bachelor’s degree. Contrary, to incident-based studies of marriage, an increase in the proportion of employed females contributed to the decline in marriage. This study expands the literature base on the marriage decline through its examination of this social trend among U.S. counties and prompts the need for further research into the impact of economic conditions on family dynamics.

Authors

• Allen Shamow, Northeastern State University

• Ethan Amidon

• John McIntosh