A Legacy of Displacement: Underlying Historical Propulsions of Guatemalan Migration

• In Event: 50664 - Theorizing Crisis (Co-sponsored by Theory Section)

Abstract

Guatemala ranks among the world’s most dangerous countries and is a significant source of migrants, particularly to the United States. This trend is often attributed to pervasive contemporary violence. My findings challenge this assumption. Bridging historical sociology, criminology, and migration studies, I develop a model of Underlying Historical Propulsions, which theorizes how critical junctures initiate self-reinforcing processes that shape social outcomes across generations. I apply this framework to Guatemala, arguing that mass displacement during the most violent years of the Guatemalan Civil War (1978–1985) set in motion a path-dependent migration process that persists today, even in regions now marked by peace. Using a unique dataset—including multiple Guatemalan censuses, municipality-level data on Civil War-era human rights violations, homicide rates, and family-unit apprehension records—I demonstrate that contemporary migration flows are shaped not by present-day violence but by the enduring legacy of state repression. These findings expand research on violence exposure by demonstrating its intergenerational effects, extend key migration theories to contexts of forced displacement, and introduce a broader framework for interrogating contemporary social puzzles where present realities do not align with prevailing explanations.

Author

• Matthew Blanton, University of Texas-Austin