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Voters in many states can use methods of direct democracy to bypass state legislatures and secure policy change directly, but the electoral arena presents distinct structural constraints for organizers. At moments when the legislative arena is hostile or unresponsive, methods of direct democracy may present either a viable alternative pathway for securing desired policy change, or a measure of last resort when all other options have failed. Here, we ask how characteristics of the U.S. political context interact to push activists into an offensive or defensive position at the ballot. Analyzing campaigns to secure background checks via ballot initiative and recall and referendum campaigns in response to legislative attacks on collective bargaining, we find that critical events play a central role in shaping the political landscape, interacting with other aspects of political opportunity structures, and the role of critical events differs depending on whether activists are on offense or defense. This research is crucial to understanding how ballot measures can help win new benefits or protections, or defend existing gains.