How Globally Widespread Is Generation-on-Generation Religious Decline? A Worldwide Analysis, 1981-2020

• In Event: 30654 - Religious Decline and Disaffiliation

Abstract

Some scholars argue that modernization makes people less religious. The standard case in point is Western Europe, and today Western countries more broadly: most Western countries (which are generally understood to be “modern,” however this term is defined) are known to have become less religious, generation upon generation, over recent decades. But it can be pointed out that today, it is not just the West that is modernizing, but many/most non-Western countries too. So, are we seeing a Western-typical pattern of religious decline repeating itself globally? This study examines the extent to which Western-typical generational fall-offs in religiosity are, indeed, present around the world. The study analyzes 1981-2020 World/European Values Survey data on multiple dimensions of religiosity from 108 countries. The results indicate that a Western-typical generational pattern – in which younger generations are progressively less religious than older generations – is indeed present in many, although certainly not all, non-Western locations, and has been for decades. Specifically, the analyses reveal that (to greater or lesser degrees) a Western-typical generational gradient is present throughout Latin America and in much of Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, and East Asia – even while being largely or entirely absent from much of the former Soviet and Eastern Bloc, sub-Saharan Africa, and Asia. These results suggest that some aspect(s) of modernity may indeed be encouraging generational religious decline around the world, not just in the West. Moreover, the findings appear to help explain declines in average levels of religiosity, which have occurred in some non-Western countries over recent decades. The findings also indicate that more non-Western countries may become less religious in the future, as younger, less religious generations replace older ones.

Author

• Louisa Roberts, USD