Sub-baccalaureate Swirling: Understanding Timing, Trajectories, and Degree Completion for Community College Students

• In Event: 40217 - Education and Inequality

Abstract

This paper examines the educational trajectories of community college students, focusing on the frequency and range of complex non-linear pathways, characterized by spells of stopping out and multi-institutional attendance and transfers. We explore what seems to drive these complex trajectories and how they predict postsecondary attainment. Using a mixed-methods approach, we analyzed administrative records and National Student Clearinghouse data for 59,757 students who attended a community college in the mid-Atlantic region from 2010 to 2024, finding that 70.8% of students exhibit nonlinear trajectories, with 40.3% transferring institutions more than once and 62.2% stopping out at least once. Despite most existing research that points to the negative consequences of complex pathways, preliminary regression results find a positive relationship between following a nonlinear trajectory and the attainment of a postsecondary credential. However, those “swirler” students who stop out for an extended period of time are less likely to complete a degree. In-depth interviews with 102 students at this community college reveal that while complex trajectories may appear similar in administrative records, they may result from divergent decision-making processes and circumstances. While some students certainly do face barriers that further complicate trajectories, including high costs of postsecondary education, academic shortcomings, administrative frictions, and personal shocks, at least as many students who stop-out or attend multiple institutions do so intentionally, motivated by a desire to engage in exploration of interests and skills to facilitate their transition to work and as strategies to optimize their college and career prospects. These preliminary findings may help us understand the surprising relationship between swirling and degree attainment. The study underscores the need to understand not just whether students complete their degrees but also what their pathways look like if we want to improve transitions from school to work and long-term educational attainment.

Authors

• Stefanie Ann DeLuca, Johns Hopkins University

• Jacqueline Groccia, Johns Hopkins University / School of Arts & Sciences

• Nicholas Papageorge, Johns Hopkins

• Sarah Sullivan, Johns Hopkins