Congressional District Compactness, Voting Power, and Ethnoracial Diversity in the House of Representatives in 2020

• In Event: 40420 - Section on Political Sociology Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 2: Electoral Politics 1

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between congressional district compactness, ethnoracial voting power, and representation in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2020 elections. Using microdata from the American National Election Study (ANES) and the Cooperative Election Study (CES), we estimate the voting power of different ethnoracial groups and assess its connection to district compactness, measured via the Isoperimetric Inequality Coefficient. Our findings suggest that non-compact districts tend to concentrate minority voting power, facilitating the election of non-White representatives. Conversely, compact districts favor the election of White representatives, though minority candidates can still win under specific conditions. Logistic regression models indicate that while district shape influences electoral outcomes, voting power is the more critical determinant. These findings contribute to the debate on redistricting by showing that district shape alone does not determine representation; rather, the strategic distribution of voters plays a crucial role. Our study has implications for ongoing legal and policy discussions on gerrymandering and minority representation.

Authors

• Aaron J. Howell, University of Mount Union

• Jeffrey M Timberlake, University of Cincinnati