Mass Mobilization, Protest Size, and Democratic Change: A Regime-Specific Analysis

• In Event: 40420 - Section on Political Sociology Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 18: The Politics of Social Movements 3

Abstract

Democratic backsliding has become a pressing global issue, underscoring the need to understand how mass mobilization influences democratization. While previous research has demonstrated that nonviolent campaigns contribute to democratic change, recent studies indicate a declining success rate since 2001. This trend raises critical questions about the conditions under which mass mobilization fosters democratic progress and the role of mobilization in shaping political outcomes.

This study investigates how the size of mass mobilization impacts democracy across democracies, partial democracies, partial autocracies, and autocracies. Large-scale mobilization have been known to trigger reforms or transform power structures, but their effects vary by regime. In democracies, large-scale mobilizations often drive institutional reforms; in partial regimes, which are notably unstable, they may provoke dramatic shifts toward either greater openness or increased repression. Meanwhile, autocracies frequently respond with repression but can still face fragmentation under sustained popular pressure.

Drawing on a heterogeneous Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach, this research systematically evaluates whether larger movements are more likely to produce democratic reforms and how outcomes differ across these regime types. Multiple datasets capturing protest events, movement attributes, and democracy indicators inform a nuanced empirical analysis of the long-term effects of mobilization.

Beyond its theoretical contributions to the study of protest efficacy and democratization, this work offers practical insights for activists, policymakers, and international organizations seeking to strengthen democratic resilience in an era of intensifying authoritarian pressures. By clarifying the conditions under which protest size exerts meaningful influence, this study provides actionable guidance on leveraging mass mobilization to foster sustainable political change.

Author

• Heejoo Cheon, George Mason University