A Model of Cultural Change

• In Event: 30821 - Open Refereed Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (90 minute): Table 14

Abstract

In this paper, I examine large-scale shifts in American public opinion over the past decades. While past research highlights the role of social movements, legal changes, and political events; measuring the impact of these events on public opinion over long periods is unfeasible. Instead, I propose a model in which public opinion shifts in response to the salience of an issue in public debate. Using data from the General Social Survey (GSS) since 1972, I track changes in attitudes toward affirmative action, abortion, same-sex relations, and the death penalty. To measure salience, I analyze newspaper coverage of these topics. My findings suggest that public events shape attitudes differently depending on age, making cohort replacement a key mechanism of cultural change. Through predictive simulations, I explore how varying past salience levels could alter present-day opinions. My model provides a framework for understanding how public discourse influences long-term shifts in cultural beliefs.

Author

• Pablo Bello, Duke University