Latinos’ Racial Identity and Classification: Implications for Social Integration and Political Behavior

• In Event: 30420 - Section on Racial and Ethnic Minorities Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 1: Racial Identity, Complexities, Hierarchies

Abstract

Latinos represent a significant and growing segment of the U.S. population, yet their racial classification remains fluid. While demographic projections often assume that Latinos will remain a distinct minority group, scholars have debated whether whiteness will expand to incorporate some Latinos. This study proposes that Latinos who have self-classified as white in previous Censuses belong to two distinct groups: those who genuinely self-identify as both Latino and white, and those who self-identify only as Latino but, when faced with a racial question that does not provide a Latino option, select the white category. Using data from the Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (CMPS) 2024, I test whether the latter group will stop selecting white under the Census’s revised racial and ethnic question format, which no longer forces Latinos to choose a racial category. I hypothesize that this change will significantly reduce the proportion of Latinos identifying as white. Additionally, I argue that Latinos who genuinely self-identify as white exhibit distinct political attitudes and behaviors, aligning more closely with white conservatism. By leveraging an experimental design embedded in CMPS 2024, this study empirically tests these distinctions and their implications for racial classification and political assimilation. Findings may suggest that the Census revision could reduce the proportion of Latinos identifying as white from 55% in 2020 to approximately 30% in 2030, fundamentally reshaping demographic and political projections in the U.S. This research contributes to scholarship on race, ethnicity, and political behavior by highlighting how racial classification policies shape Latino identity and political incorporation, offering crucial insights into the evolving racial landscape of the United States.

Author

• Giovanni Castro Irizarry, University of California-Los Angeles