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This paper examines the rise and fall of federalism as a contested political discourse in early Republican China, arguing that it functioned as a floating signifier whose meaning was strategically shaped by competing political actors. While existing scholarship often frames federalism as either an imported ideology or a rhetorical tool for warlord autonomy, this study reveals its dynamic evolution and eventual delegitimization. Using a mixed-methods approach, including dynamic network analysis, BERTopic-based dynamic topic modeling, and historical interpretation, the paper analyzes 354,234 newspaper articles (1900–1937) and secondary sources to trace federalism’s shifting connections with other political discourses. The findings show that federalism initially resonated with anti-colonial and democratic aspirations but was later reframed as feudal and reactionary. Warlords and regional elites mobilized federalist rhetoric to justify autonomy but struggled to extend state-building efforts beyond the provincial level. Meanwhile, figures like Sun Yat-sen tactically embraced and later rejected federalism in pursuit of national unification. This study challenges binary narratives of centralization versus decentralization and highlights how ideological flexibility shaped China’s state formation. By reconceptualizing federalism as a historically contingent discourse, the paper contributes to broader debates on political ideology, state-building, and the role of contested discourses in historical transformations.