Fertility Intentions in Uncertain Times: Economic Worsening, Trust, and Government Crisis Management

• In Event: Sociology of Population Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 4. Fertility Dynamics

Abstract

The sudden outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the risk-avoidance atmosphere it created may have accelerated an already existing downward trend in fertility rates in Turkey, underscoring the urgent need to understand how perceptions of uncertainty shape people’s fertility decisions, particularly in times of crisis. Drawing on Risk Aversion Theory (RAT) and the Risk Management Perspective (RMP), this study examines how Turkish individuals’ fertility intentions are influenced by their perceptions of economic change, satisfaction with the government’s crisis management, and levels of institutional and interpersonal trust, factors that remain largely overlooked in the fertility literature. Using the data from the 2022 Turkish COVID-19 Values Study (TCVS), the findings show that individuals who perceived their economic situation as worsening were less likely to intend to have children. In contrast, greater satisfaction with the government’s crisis management was associated with greater fertility intentions. Deviating from the Western context, greater institutional trust was associated with a lower likelihood of intending to have future children. Future fertility intention was lower for women, older individuals, those with lower education, and those with two or more children.

Authors

• Ceylan Engin

• Meryem Uyaver