From Frontlines to Home: the Impact of Returning Soldiers’ Testimonies on Public Opinion

• In Event: New Approaches in Social Network Research: Theory, Methods, and Applications - Open Call Paper Session

Abstract

How does a nation’s support for one side of a conflict shift dramatically to the other? This paper examines a rapid shift in Norwegian public opinion between 1978 and 1980, from strong pro-Israel sentiment to widespread criticism of Israel’s actions in the occupied territories. We propose a bottom-up explanation of opinion change: the diffusion of counter-narrative information through trusted in-group members who—by virtue of their mobility—become informationally distinct from their peers. Specifically, we focus on Norwegian UNIFIL peacekeepers returning from Lebanon after 1978 who, through their direct exposure to the conflict and continued embeddedness in local communities, came to serve as informational brokers. Combining cross-sectional data on public opinion with original survey data on former veterans, we leverage geographic variation in returnee intensity to show that counties receiving more returnees experienced sharper declines in pro-Israel sentiment. The findings demonstrate how short-term mobility can drive attitudinal change by enabling trusted in-group members to introduce new information into otherwise homogeneous environments.

Author

• Juliette Saetre, Toulouse School of Economics