World War: Survival, Recovery and Prevention

• In Event: Political Economy of the World-System Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Roundtable II: Statecraft, Future Economies, and Survival

Abstract

Sociocultural evolution toward greater social complexity and hierarchy has been increasing in waves since the Stone Age but upswings in scale have repeatedly been interrupted by collapses in which complexity, hierarchy and scale temporarily decreased. There is a vast research literature on collapses, disasters and extinctions that compares catastrophes in biological and sociocultural evolution. Explanations of the causes of social change are incomplete if they do not address both the downswings and collapses and the recoveries and the upsweeps. This article focuses on future wars with weapons of mass destruction that are likely to occur in the 21st century and the literature that estimates the magnitudes of short, medium-term and long-term fatalities and the genetic consequences, especially with respect to nuclear winter and social collapse effects on food, energy and mutation effects on human reproduction and genetic change. We review the literature that assesses the probable consequences and length of recovery from medium and large wars among powerful states in the 21st century and plausible estimates of the length of time it will take the human species to resume technological and sociocultural development. We also discuss the steps that need to be taken to prevent and mitigate the likely catastrophic consequences of nuclear war between powerful states. Examined consequences of the big one include deaths from explosions and fires, starvation caused by nuclear winter, and mutation, selection and genetic drift and inbreeding in fragmented human populations. The good news is that our species will survive. The bad news is that another world war will cause unbelievable destruction and suffering, and recovery to the levels of size, complexity and technological capability that humans have now will take a very long time, probably from three to five centuries.

Authors

• Christopher K Chase-Dunn

• Antony Harper