Perception Gaps: How Official Statistics Shape Attitudes on Immigrants in Italy

• In Event: International Migration Section Refereed Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): 18. Methods and measurement

Abstract

Italy is increasingly recognized as a migration state, with important implications for public opinion toward migrants. Perceived threat from migrants among the native majority plays a crucial role in shaping social tensions and electoral behaviour. Drawing on the Intergroup Competition Hypothesis and the Integrated Intergroup Threat Theory, this study examines whether inaccurate perceptions influence attitudes toward migrants. These theoretical perspectives suggest that perceived threats shape individuals’ evaluations of outgroup members. Previous research has shown that people often overestimate the share of immigrants in their country, which amplifies perceived threat and fosters negative attitudes. This study estimates the effect of corrective statistical information concerning the share of children born to families with at least one immigrant parent, as well as changes in this share over the past 25 years, on attitudes toward migrants. It relies on a large-scale, multi-arm survey experiment (n = 2,000) conducted in Italy in 2024. Participants first estimated the current share of children born to immigrant families and its trend over time. One treatment group received accurate information about (1) the current share of children born with migration background, while another received information about (2) the increase in this share over time. Subsequently, all respondents, both in the treatment and control groups, completed a set of questions measuring various dimensions of attitudes toward migrants and their children. With few exceptions and some cases of backlash, the results indicate that individuals generally resist changing their attitudes toward migrants, even when presented with corrective information based on objective statistics.

Authors

• Olga Griaznova

• Nevena Kulic

• Debora Mantovani, University of Bologna

• Loris Vergolini, University of Bologna