Swing State Support? Public Opinion on the One Big Beautiful Bill in North Carolina

• In Event: Political Sociology Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Comparative Conservatism (Table 2)

Abstract

This paper examines public attitudes toward the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA; H.R. 1), a sweeping fiscal and policy package that aligns with the conservative agenda Project 2025. Using an original survey of North Carolina residents (n = 1,000), we construct a composite measure capturing favorability of key components of the bill. Correlation coefficients indicate that identifying as Republican, assigning greater importance to religion, owning a private water well, income, and age are positively and significantly associated with support for the OBBBA. In contrast, higher levels of worry about climate change, warmth toward academic freedom, identifying as female, and nonwhite racial status are significantly negatively correlated with approval. Educational attainment shows no significance. Stepwise multivariate regression models reveal that Republican identification and importance of religion are robust, positive predictors of support for the bill across all model specifications. Well ownership remains a significant or nearly significant positive predictor in all the models in which it is included. Greater concern about climate change, favoring academic freedom, and identifying as female are consistently significant negative predictors. Family income, race, age, and education do not exhibit significant slopes in the multivariate models. To assess whether political affiliation moderates these relationships, the analyses employ multigroup regression comparing Democrats and Republicans. Results suggest meaningful moderation by party membership. Religious importance, well ownership, and nonwhite racial identity predict support among Democrats, not Republicans. Anxiety about climate change predicts significant OBBBA opposition among Republicans only, whereas favorability toward academic freedom, gender (female), and education predict significantly less sympathy among Democrats only. These findings point out how partisan identity not only structures approval for Republican policy priorities but also the demographic and attitudinal variables that predict public opinion about the OBBBA in a politically contested state.

Author

• Brock Ternes, University of North Carolina-Wilmington