Unequal Safety Abroad: Target Profile and Host Regime Effects on Transnational Repression

• In Event: Soft Power, Hard Borders: The Geopolitics of Diaspora Engagement

Abstract

This study advances theories of transnational repression by examining how target visibility and host-state regime type jointly shape exiles’ exposure to distinct forms of cross-border coercion. Why are some dissidents living abroad formally extradited over to their origin-state authorities while other dissidents face direct, unilateral attacks abroad? Transnational repression occurs when authoritarian origin states reach across borders to silence citizens overseas. This occurs through formal collaboration with host governments—detentions and extraditions—or through unilateral violence, including assassinations, abductions, and threats. The political visibility of exiles and the regime type of the host country jointly shape when authoritarian states can secure formal cooperation and when they rely on more direct, unilateral forms of violence.
To evaluate this argument, I draw on the Authoritarian Actions Abroad Database (AAAD) to assemble a dataset of 1,092 physical acts of transnational repression between 1991 and 2019. The results support the theoretical expectations: high-profile exiles are less likely than ordinary citizens to be extradited but far more likely to be assassinated or threatened, and democratic host countries are especially reluctant to detain prominent dissidents and less likely to engage in extradition. These findings show that transnational repression is stratified by the target profile and the regime type of the host nation, advancing research on extraterritorial authoritarian practices and informing efforts to design safer pathways for protecting exiles abroad.

Author

• Yusuf Karipek, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign