Social Sterilization: The Effect of Wealth Inequality on Fertility Ideals and Outcomes

• In Event: Structural Constraints on U.S. Fertility

Abstract

Fertility rates in the United States have declined steadily for several decades and remain well below replacement level, raising concerns about population aging, pressure on social safety nets, and long-term economic sustainability. While governments around the world have responded to declining fertility with cash subsidies, parental leave, and childcare expansions, fertility has remained low even in countries with generous family policies. These modest effects suggest that the drivers of fertility decline extend beyond individual households to the broader social contexts in which people assess their capacity to form families. We propose that rising wealth inequality, as a distributional characteristic of economic resources which reflect disparities in long-term economic security, access to housing and credit, and the ability to buffer economic risk, represents a critical but understudied social context shaping fertility decisions. This innovative project investigates whether and how place-based wealth inequality shapes individuals’ ideal fertility, actual fertility, and the ideal-actual gap. Our study answers three questions: 1) estimates associations between local wealth inequality and fertility outcomes; 2) examines whether these associations vary across age groups, historical periods, and birth cohorts; 3) evaluates whether this relationship differs by individuals’ socioeconomic standing. To address these questions, we link GEOWEALTH-US, the only currently available dataset providing refined subnational estimates of wealth inequality, to restricted-use General Social Survey (GSS) data spanning over five decades from 1972 to 2021. By positioning wealth inequality as a structural, place-based determinant of fertility, this study advances understanding of fertility decline by embedding individual intentions and behaviors within the broader social context in which people assess their capacity to bear and rear children relative to others around them. The findings will inform demographic research and policy discussions by shifting attention from motivating individual preferences toward improving the structural conditions that shape people’s ability to have the families they desire.

Authors

• Shuyi Qiu, Duke University

• Christina Gibson-Davis