Grade Retention, Self-efficacy, and Educational Expectation

• In Event: Student Forum Roundtables Session
  In Refereed Roundtable (90 minute): Roundtable 1: K-12 Education Policy, Schooling, and Discipline

Abstract

Grade retention remains a contested educational practice, with ongoing debate over its academic and psychological consequences. However, existing research tends to examine academic performance and psychological outcomes separately, leaving limited attention to the mechanisms linking these domains. Educational expectations serve as a crucial bridge between subjective psychological processes and long-term attainment, yet they remain understudied in retention research. This study investigates whether grade retention in primary school influences middle school students’ educational expectations and examines the mediating role of self-efficacy. Using nationally representative data from the China Education Panel Survey (2013–2014), ordered logit and logit models estimate the association between retention experience and educational expectations. Lasso-based causal inference approaches, including partialing-out, double selection, and cross-fitting, are employed to enhance robustness. Mediation analysis assesses the role of self-efficacy. Results show that primary school retention is associated with significantly lower educational expectations in middle school, even after accounting for academic performance and family background. Retained students exhibit substantially lower odds of expecting to attain a bachelor’s degree or higher. Approximately 10% of this effect operates through reduced self-efficacy. These findings highlight the longer-term consequences of grade retention and underscore the importance of psychological mechanisms in shaping educational trajectories.

Author

• Feng Wei, Johns Hopkins University