Factors Shaping Migration Patterns of Central Asian Labor Migrants to Russia

• In Event: International Migration Section Refereed Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): 14. Drivers of migration

Abstract

This study examines economic, demographic, social network, and geographic distance as factors shaping the regional distribution of labor migrants from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan across 79 regions of the Russian Federation. Using the Federal State Statistical Service of Russia’s (Rosstat) “Hiring Labor Migrants” (“Ispolʹzovanie truda migrantov”) survey data from 2014 and 2019, along with regional economic indicators, we apply linear regression models to assess the influence of economic development, population size, migrant networks, and geographic distance on migrant location choices. Our findings reveal that the most significant predictors of migration flows are the size of existing Central Asian (Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) migrant communities and the size of the regional population in Russia, underscoring the centrality of social networks and urban economic opportunity in shaping migration patterns. While total regional GDP is initially a strong economic attractor, its statistical significance diminishes when controlling for demographic and social network variables. The effect of distance varies by country, with migrants from Kyrgyzstan more likely to migrate farther compared to migrants from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Authors

• Umida Hashimova, George Mason University

• James C. Witte, George Mason University