Heterogeneous Pathways to Marriage: Attitudinal Types and Marriage Intention among young women in South Korea

• In Event: Family Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 8: Family Attitudes and Aspirations

Abstract

Fertility decline has been widespread across OECD countries, yet extremely low fertility in East Asia suggests that demographic change unfolds differently across postindustrial societies. This study integrates Second Demographic Transition theory and Gender Equity Theory to explain the decline in marriage, a main determinant of low fertility in South Korea. Like other East Asian countries, Korea is characterized by rapid cultural and social changes over a compressed time frame and persistent gendered family norms. The study examines the extent of heterogeneity in attitudes and values within a population marked by seemingly incompatible norms and social systems using a latent class model. I argue that demographic outcomes emerge from the interaction between postmodern values and structural constraints that link paid work and caregiving responsibilities. When combined with the diffusion of postmodern values, the linkage of work and caregiving responsibilities can lead to women’s rejection of marriage; when confronted with worsening economic conditions and rigid social structures, it produces individuals unable to fulfill these normative expectations. The demographic outcomes observed in Korea are not the result of a single set of causal factors but rather multiple interacting processes, shaped by how individuals combine and reinterpret the cultural elements of family and marriage within their specific environments. Using data from the Korean Longitudinal Survey of Women and Families (KLoWF), I examine (1) attitudinal types toward marriage and family among unmarried women aged 19–29, (2) how these types are associated with marriage intentions, and (3) how they shape transitions to first marriage. Employing latent class analysis, multinomial logistic regression, and discrete-time hazard models, this study demonstrates how culturally patterned attitudes, combined with material opportunities and constraints, generate heterogeneous pathways to marriage that can manifest as low fertility rates. By linking cultural distributions to inequality in family formation behavior, the study contributes to a better understanding of variation in low-fertility trends across post-industrial societies.

Author

• Woojung Min, Rutgers University-New Brunswick