Wealth Inequality and Polarized Fertility Responses in the United States, 1970–2020

• In Event: Political, Social, and Welfare Consequences of Economic Inequality (Co-sponsored by Political Sociology Section)

Abstract

The social consequences of economic inequality have long occupied sociological inquiry. While prior research has emphasized income inequality as a contextual determinant of fertility, less attention has been paid to wealth inequality—the concentration of assets that structures long-term economic security. This study examines whether and how local wealth inequality shapes early childbearing.
Using decennial Census and American Community Survey data linked to commuting-zone (CZ) wealth measures from GEOWEALTH-US (1970–2020), we estimate two-way fixed effects models to assess the association between CZ-level wealth inequality and the number of own children under age five. Results show that wealth inequality is positively associated with early childbearing. Importantly, this relationship is highly heterogeneous. In lower-wealth regions, wealth inequality is broadly associated with higher early childbearing across income groups. In higher-wealth regions, however, the association becomes polarized: wealth inequality is positively associated with early childbearing among households at the bottom and top of the income distribution, but negatively associated among middle-income families.
These findings suggest that wealth inequality constitutes a structurally distinct dimension of stratification with unique demographic consequences. By shaping access to housing, public goods, economic security, and status competition, local wealth concentration reorganizes fertility decisions across socioeconomic groups. Moving beyond income-based measures to incorporate asset-based inequality is therefore essential for understanding how place-based economic structures contribute to polarization in family formation.

Authors

• Siyao Lu, Yale University

• Rourke O'Brien, Yale University