Escalators, Not Equalizers: Core-City Premiums in Intergenerational Social Mobility in China

• In Event: Community and Urban Sociology Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 1: Neighborhood Effects

Abstract

Metropolitan regions concentrate high-value jobs and key institutions. A “metropolitan effect” on social mobility refers to the incremental association between residence in the metropolitan tier and social mobility relative to other urban places. Yet most evidence on metropolitan effects comes from advanced economies since the 1970s, where metropolitan restructuring occurred after mass urbanization. In rapidly developing societies, metropolitan concentration often unfolds alongside mass urbanization, making it unclear whether mobility advantages in large cities reflect a distinct metropolitan premium or urbanization more broadly. Using pooled data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey, we distinguish metropolitan-tier effects from general urbanization effects by comparing intergenerational mobility across rural areas, non-core cities, and core cities in China (municipalities, provincial capitals, and sub-provincial cities). We examine both absolute mobility (intergenerational change in ISEI occupational status) and relative mobility (rank–rank persistence). To assess heterogeneity and clarify mechanisms, we estimate core-city premiums within four pathways of urban exposure: rural–urban migrants, in-situ urbanized residents (administratively reclassified), urban locals (non-migrants born urban), and urban-to-urban migrants, using OLS models and propensity score methods. Results show that urbanization is the dominant driver of mobility: moving from rural areas to urban areas is associated with large gains in absolute mobility and, for men, weaker intergenerational persistence. Core-city residence provides an additional premium only for absolute mobility and does not improve relative mobility compared to other urban areas. There are core-city premiums for rural–urban migrant men and in-situ urbanized women, but these patterns are largely explained by education and hukou status and weaken in propensity-score comparisons. In contrast, a premium persists for urban local men, suggesting cumulative place-based advantages. Overall, China’s metropolitan tier raises average attainment without functioning as an equalizer of opportunity, highlighting how urban hierarchies can generate absolute gains while reinforcing stratification in rapidly urbanizing settings.

Authors

• Yiyue Huangfu, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen

• Haiyan hao

• Hongli Liang