The Topology of Opportunity: Measuring Stepping-Stone Potential in Bureaucratic Mobility Networks of Late Qing (1830–1905)

• In Event: Organizations, Occupations, and Work Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (90 minute): Table 25: Returns to Network Position

Abstract

Career mobility is conventionally modeled using statutory rank or hierarchical level as the outcome variable. However, particularly in bureaucratic contexts, the most valuable positions may not be those with the highest statutory rank, but rather the “stepping-stones” that serve as fast-tracks to elite roles. Formal rank often obscures the underlying empirical topology of opportunity, conflating statutory outcomes with a position’s structural capacity to generate further mobility. Building on recent network approaches to internal labor markets, we introduce a methodology to compute the structural potential of positions independently of their formal ranks. Applying a modified PageRank algorithm to a mobility network constructed from 2.7 million career records of 130,000 civil officials in the late Qing Dynasty (1830–1905), we extract the empirical stepping-stone potential of bureaucratic posts. Our findings demonstrate two primary mechanisms of bureaucratic stratification. First, at the position level, stepping-stone potential is heavily dictated by hard geographic constraints (monopolized by the central capital) and mid-to-low statutory ranks. These hubs derive their systemic value by functioning as high-turnover structural bottlenecks rather than the elite demographic composition of their occupants. Second, at the individual level, empirical exposure to these high-potential transit hubs independently predicts a significantly higher ultimate career achievement.

Authors

• Yue Yu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

• Cameron Campbell, Hong Kong Univ of Science and Tech