Vertical Mismatch in Early Careers: The Role of Parental Education and Intergenerational Industry Reproduction in China

• In Event: Asia and Asian American Section Roundtables Session
  In Refereed Roundtable (90 minute): Table 4: Asia and Asian America Section Roundtable - Education

Abstract

As higher education expands rapidly, concerns have grown about whether graduates are able to secure jobs that fully utilize their credentials. In China, the dramatic growth of tertiary enrollment since the late 1990s, combined with structural labor market transformation, raises pressing questions about the distribution and consequences of education–occupation mismatch in early careers.
This study examines education–occupation vertical mismatch in first jobs in China and investigates how parental education and intergenerational industry reproduction shape early career outcomes. Drawing on 16,829 respondents from the China Family Panel Studies, we analyze whether individuals are well matched, overeducated, or undereducated in their first full-time job, and assess variation across birth cohorts and industries.
Descriptive results show that mismatch is widespread and increasing. Overall, 45 percent of respondents are overeducated and 15 percent undereducated in their first job, while only 40 percent are well matched. Cohort patterns reveal a sharp rise in overeducation, from about 40 percent among those born in the 1960s and 1970s to 54 percent among the 2000s cohort, alongside a decline in undereducation. Substantial variation also appears across industries, reflecting differences in credential requirements and labor market structures.
Multinomial logistic regression models indicate that both fathers’ and mothers’ schooling significantly reduce the likelihood of overeducation, suggesting that parental cultural capital facilitates more effective translation of credentials into jobs. Entering the same industry as one’s father further lowers the risk of overeducation, highlighting the importance of sector-specific knowledge and networks. These protective effects are strongest among younger cohorts, implying that educational expansion has intensified the value of family-based resources. The findings demonstrate that vertical mismatch is not merely a byproduct of higher education expansion but is structured by intergenerational inequality embedded in China’s evolving labor market.

Authors

• Ran Liu, University of Wisconsin-Madison

• Yi-Lin Chiang, NYU Shanghai