Trade agreements, labor provisions, and labor migration

• In Event: Economic Sociology Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Roundtable 2: Migration and Development

Abstract

This paper estimates the relationship between trade agreements and global migration patterns, with particular attention to the role of labor provisions embedded in these agreements. Using difference-in-differences specifications to address the endogeneity of trade agreements, we find that trade agreements have small to modest positive effects on migration, depending on the estimation strategy. One potential explanation for this pattern is the inclusion of restrictive labor provisions within trade agreements. To examine this mechanism, we analyze five distinct categories of labor-related provisions and estimate their marginal effects on migration flows. In the global scale, results indicate that labor provisions are generally associated with lower levels of migration, suggesting that such clauses may function as constraints on labor mobility. In contrast, the Latin American subsample reveals a more nuanced pattern, with certain provisions associated with increased migration, particularly those related to labor standards and temporary business entry. These findings highlight the heterogeneous effects of labor provisions across regions and suggest that carefully designed clauses may offer policy-relevant pathways for facilitating migration within Latin America.

Authors

• Raymond Robertson, Texas A&M University

• Ernesto F. L. Amaral, Texas A&M University-College Station