When Does Armed Conflict Affect National Identity? Multi-Event Quasi-Experimental Evidence

• In Event: Peace, War, and Social Conflict Panel Session: War

Abstract

Both Simmel and Smith argued that war can sharpen in-group solidarity and foster unity. Contemporary research on armed conflict and conflict-related threat exposure, however, points to heterogeneous and potentially multidirectional effects. In some contexts, conflict strengthens national attachment, while in others it shifts identification toward ethnic or more local identities. This paper investigates these patterns by asking whether exposure to armed conflict events affects national identity and under which conflict conditions such effects emerge. National identity is conceptualized as a form of social identity and operationalized through national pride. The study links conflict event data to a harmonized survey dataset spanning 1997 to 2023 and including up to 28 event cases across 23 countries. Using an Unexpected Event During Surveys design, it leverages interview timing around conflict events that occur during survey fieldwork to estimate causal effects and compare results across conflict types. In doing so, the paper seeks to clarify when and under what conflict conditions armed conflict events affect national identification.

Author

• Lyon Portolani, Department of Sociology, University of Copenhagen