Is It a Power Game? NLP Analysis of Fentanyl Policy Language Across Electoral Cycles

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Abstract

The fentanyl crisis has emerged as one of the most consequential public policy challenges in the United States, prompting expansive federal responses across public health, criminal justice, and border security domains. While prior research has examined how elections shape policy outputs such as legislative productivity and spending, less attention has been paid to whether electoral incentives influence the language of policy itself. Drawing on theories of political communication and social conflict, this study investigates whether federal policymakers strategically adjust fentanyl-related rhetoric in proximity to presidential and midterm elections.

This study analyzes federal fentanyl policy documents issued between January 2017 and December 2025, encompassing two presidential elections (2020, 2024) and two midterm elections (2018, 2022). Documents were collected from Congress.gov and executive branch sources, including the White House and major federal agencies. Using Natural Language Processing (NLP), we examine whether electoral timing is associated with changes in four linguistic dimensions: emotional intensity, linguistic complexity, externalization of blame to foreign or transnational actors, and policy orientation toward enforcement versus public health.

Electoral timing is measured both continuously, as days to the nearest Election Day, and categorically, as pre- and post-election periods. Ordinary least squares regression models, with agency-clustered standard errors and institutional controls, assess whether policy language shifts as elections approach.

By shifting attention from policy enactment to policy discourse, this study highlights the communicative dimension of governance. The findings provide insight into whether crisis-related rhetoric becomes more emotionally charged, enforcement-oriented, or externally focused during electoral periods, illuminating how democratic actors may strategically frame public health crises within competitive political contexts.

Authors

• Nan Li, University of Florida

• Shah Ullah

• Wen Zhang, Pulp Internet Corporation

• Uday Turakhia