Exposure to Local Violent Crime and Abortion, Miscarriage, and Stillbirth in Mexico

• In Event: Sociology of Population Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 2. Reproductive Health

Abstract

Violence and insecurity have substantial consequences for reproductive health, yet little is known
about how local violent crime affects reproductive decision-making and well-being during pregnancy.
This study focuses on abortion, miscarriage, and stillbirth in Mexico, where the War on Drugs policy
has resulted in a dramatic surge in crime. We combine individual-level nationally representative
surveys on women’s experiences of pregnancy loss and termination (n = 70,519), administrative data
from fetal death certificates (n = 32,736), and monthly municipality-level homicide rates based on
cause-of-death registers in municipality-fixed effects models. We control for potential confounding
factors at both individual and local levels and investigate heterogeneous effects using an intersectional
approach. Individual-level models show a modest positive association between local crime exposure
during the first trimester and the probability of pregnancy loss and termination. Poisson models reveal
a negative association between local violent crime and the number of registered fetal deaths. Our
findings suggest the most fragile pregnancies are miscarried or terminated at higher rates in more
crime-affected municipalities, resulting in fewer stillbirths.

Authors

• Signe Svallfors, Stanford University

• Mónica L. Caudillo, University of Maryland-College Park

• Orsola Torrisi