Racial Threat Reconsidered: Latino In-Migration, Economic Threat, and Climate Policy Attitudes Among Ideologically Flexible Voters

• In Event: Political Sociology Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Environmental Politics (Table 6)

Abstract

Racial threat theory predicts that majority-group voters reduce support for policies benefiting minoritized populations, yet research has not examined whether such responses vary by economic security and political ideology. Using a survey experiment (N=1,371) that randomized racial framing of climate infrastructure investments (White, Black, or Latino in-migration), we test whether income moderates support for climate policy and whether this moderation differs across ideological groups. Among the full sample, income shows marginal moderation of responses to Latino (but not Black) framing. However, subsample analyses reveal this aggregate pattern masks substantial heterogeneity: the Latino × Income interaction is large and significant among moderates (b=0.60, p<0.05) but absent among liberals and conservatives. Lower-income moderates reduce support when exposed to Latino in-migration framing, while higher-income moderates increase support; no comparable pattern emerges with Black framing. These findings demonstrate that economic insecurity activates threat responses only when paired with ideological flexibility and racialized framing, suggesting how income stratification undermines support for public goods provisions by fracturing support along demographic lines.

Authors

• Heather Harper, New Mexico State University

• Mackenzie Brooklyn Dybvik, New Mexico State University

• Thomas Anthony Frost, New Mexico State University

• Daniel Auerbach, University of Wyoming

• Hayden Mackenzie, University of Wyoming

• Arielle d'Arge, University of Wyoming