Carrots and Sticks in Online Fertility Discourse in China: The Cultural Logics of Childbearing Deliberation

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  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 8: Family Attitudes and Aspirations

Abstract

Childlessness has become increasingly visible across advanced and middle-income societies and is often interpreted as the result of unmet fertility goals. However, an analytically distinct phenomenon may be emerging: zero fertility desire—the explicit preference to remain childfree. Compared to constrained or involuntary childlessness, zero fertility desire reflects a deeper shift in how parenthood itself is evaluated. In China, where fertility has reached ultra-low levels despite policy relaxation, this distinction is particularly consequential.

This study examines how zero fertility desire and fertility deliberation more broadly are articulated in contemporary Chinese online discourse. Using comment data from Bilibili, a major video-sharing platform with a predominantly young user base, I collected a 1% random sample of fertility-related search results and gathered all associated comments (N = 10,226 in the first wave). Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is applied to identify recurring justificatory frames through which users evaluate childbearing.

Results show that while structural constraints—housing costs, employment insecurity, and lack of stable partners—remain central, fertility deliberation extends beyond economic barriers. Online discourse reveals elevated expectations of parenthood, concerns about gender inequality and bodily risk, reflections on childhood experiences, and an increasing emphasis on individual autonomy. Together, these themes form a spectrum of evaluation ranging from “unobtainable carrots,” such as ideal partnership and parenting conditions, to “unavoidable sticks,” including health risks and irreversible life-course trade-offs. Childbearing increasingly appears as an optional and qualification-dependent life project rather than a moral obligation.

By distinguishing constrained childlessness from affirmative rejection of parenthood, this study highlights the ideational dimensions of fertility decline and suggests that ultra-low fertility may be sustained not only by structural constraints but also by evolving cultural thresholds surrounding parenthood.

Author

• Xiangning Xu, Brown University