Typologies of Place: School District Enrollment, Population, and Sociodemographic Trends

• In Event: Sociology of Population Section Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): Table 6. Education

Abstract

The size of school districts’ enrollments and residential populations constantly change but might not always change in parallel. In many U.S. school districts, enrollment and population trajectories likely diverge due to shifts in population age structure and changes in the participation in school choice. This suggests that there are multiple district enrollment-population growth trajectories with implications for the provision of public schooling. In this paper, I examine the relationship between school districts’ enrollment and general population trajectories to understand how districts’ broader social contexts contribute to the heterogeneity that exists in local, educational contexts across the U.S. Using data from U.S. Census Bureau and National Center for Education Statistics, I conduct a national analysis of district-level enrollment and population trajectories to examine: (a) the extent to which enrollment trajectories reflect population trajectories; (b) the extent to which changing adult-to-child ratios and/or school choice contribute to divergence between these trajectories; (c) underlying economic conditions, housing conditions, and household composition that are associated with particular district growth trajectories; (d) and variation in enrollment-population trends by geography and population composition. Among an initial set of results, I find that more than a quarter of districts experienced divergence between their enrollment and population trajectories and that the divergence appears to be predominantly driven by changes in the population’s age structures. Examining this sociodemographic heterogeneity across districts has important implications for access to educational opportunity and inequality between districts.

Author

• Alexi Williams, Johns Hopkins University