Expected Educational Returns and Youth Migration: Causal Analysis of Rural Youth Using a Genetic Approach

• In Event: International Migration Section Refereed Roundtables
  In Refereed Roundtable (60 minute): 11. Immigrants and education

Abstract

This study explores the relationship between academic performance, school dropout, and migration decisions among rural youth during the age of mass migration by integrating genetic data into social science research. Using data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study, it examines how genetic predisposition for educational attainment, measured through Polygenic Indexes (PGIs), influences youth's educational and migration outcomes independent of other factors. By employing a quasi-natural experimental design controlling for parental genotypes, this study enhances causal inference in understanding how academic potential shapes migration decisions. Preliminary hypotheses suggest youth with higher genetic predisposition for educational attainment are less likely to drop out of school or migrate. However, gender and birth order may moderate these effects, with girls and older siblings more likely to exit school and migrate under similar genetic predispositions. This research highlights the potential of genetic data in addressing longstanding sociological questions.

Author

• Yuxin Liu, Princeton University