Assessing the Implications of a Structured Decision-making Tool for Recidivism in a Statewide Analysis: A Disposition Matrix for Court Recommendations made by Juvenile Probation Officers

• In Event: Juvenile Risk Assessment Tools

Abstract

The Florida Department of Juvenile Justice implemented a disposition matrix to guide recommendations made by juvenile probation officers to the court. We examine whether recidivism rates differ for dispositions/placements made within the suggested range of this matrix from those outside of the suggested range. Using a sample of 38,117 juvenile offenders, we find dispositions/placements within the suggested range with an average recidivism rate of 19.4%, while those whose dispositions were outside the range had an average recidivism rate twice as high (38.7%). Dispositions/placements that were the least restrictive option within the suggested range performed best. Dispositions above the suggested range (more restrictive) performed poorly, though those below the suggested range (less restrictive than suggested) performed worst. Results held for males and females, across race/ethnicity, and across risk to re-offend levels. Implementation of structured decision-making tools leads to questions from stakeholders and front-line staff charged with using those tools regarding the effectiveness of the tool. Research and theory-based justifications do not hold the weight actual data from the population holds. These tools help control costs, facilitate planning, and can improve outcomes. Monthly monitoring of adherence rates, development of override and management oversight, and feedback to front-line staff are critical for success.

Authors

• Michael T. Baglivio, Florida Department of Juvenile Justice

• Mark Andrew Greenwald, Florida State University

• Meg Bates, Florida Department of Juvenile Justice