Justice Parameters of Failed Statehood to Predict Homicide Rates in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan: A Linear Forecast

• In Event: Cross-National Research on Correlates and Causes of Homicide

Abstract

The scholarly portrayals of crimes and criminal justice systems in South Asia can be broadly outlined as the “success story” of democratic principles in India and the tragic tale of its “failure” in Pakistan and Bangladesh. The criminal justice systems in these societies are reflected in the performance of state. In the present time, there are various measures to assess the performance of the justice systems in relation to state effectiveness. Among them, following Failed State Index, four indicators are important in relation to evaluating the performance of a justice system: vengeance-seeking grievances, human rights and rule of law, state legitimacy, and security apparatus. An evaluation of the effects of these parameters on crimes, particularly homicides, is important for the existing academic discourse. Using time series data from Fund For Peace and United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes for 2005 through 2013, the paper forecasts on the mentioned parameters and their effects on the homicide rates for the years 2014-2018. The preliminary forecasts suggest that both India and Bangladesh would continue prospering in their justice systems reflected in the performance of states, and the state performances contribute to the decrease of the homicide rates in upcoming years.

Authors

• Shyamal Kumar Das, Elizabeth City State University

• Shahid Shahidullah, Elizabeth City State University

• Lanika Glasper, Elizabeth City State University

• Betty Harvey, Elizabeth City State University