An Assessment of Risk Based Police Deployment

• In Event: Novel Approaches to Policing: Public and Private Police

Abstract

The present research is an investigation of the efficacy of Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) in informing police deployments. Specifically, this study works to determine if RTM improves upon traditional hot spots models. This research employs ArcGIS software and data simulation applications to simultaneously assess three police deployment strategies under identical settings: hot spots, RTM, and a control condition (i.e. random deployments). The models are rooted in victimization data from Baltimore, Maryland for the years 2008 through 2013. These data also include measures of guardianship, such as presence of crime cameras, presence of parking enforcement officers, and proximity to police precincts. Using these data, one full year of simulated data are generated to identify if one of the models of police deployment (RTM, hot spots, or control) is measurably more successful in deploying officers to areas where crime is most likely to occur. Policy implications of the findings are considered.

Authors

• Megan Eileen Collins, University of Maryland

• Jean Marie McGloin, University of Maryland