Examining the Effectiveness of Police Investigations: An application of trajectory analysis

• In Event: Police and Crime Prevention

Abstract

Research examining the effectiveness of police practices on crime prevention, reduction and deterrence has focused a great deal on patrol and uniformed operations, not investigations (Braga et al., 2011). Indeed, Eck concluded some time ago that “it is unlikely that improvements in the way investigations are conducted or managed have a dramatic effect on crime or criminal justice” (1992, p. 33). While there has been improvement in forensic methods such as DNA processing or information sharing technology, we also know that in general, clearance rates have remained stubbornly stable for the last four decades in the U.S. At the same time, police expend a great deal of resources and time on criminal investigations and place a high priority on closing cases, increasing detection rates, and making arrests. This presentation presents preliminary research on the use of trajectory analysis to parse out categories of clearance rate trajectories from 1981 – 2011 to determine variation in clearance rate trends in the U.S. and propose the use of trajectories to further understand the effectiveness of criminal investigations.

Authors

• Cynthia Lum, George Mason University

• Heather Vovak, George Mason University