Optimizing the residual deterrent effects from police patrol at hot spots

• In Event: Police and Crime Prevention

Abstract

Deterrence theory is central to many police operations, particularly the use of preventive patrol to reduce crime. In recent years, the deterrent value of patrol has arguably been enhanced by a more precise focus on places and times that present the greatest risks of crime. However, questions still remain about the most optimal dosages, schedules, and styles of patrol for maximizing deterrence while making the most efficient use possible of police resources. Can deterrence theory inform further refinement and calibration of patrol? One recent patrol innovation, grounded in deterrence theory, is the use of 15-minute patrol stops at micro hot spots. This strategy is based on empirical research (Koper, 1995) suggesting that the residual deterrent effects of police presence on crime and disorder at hot spots is optimized by patrol stops of approximately 10-15 minutes (a finding popularly referred to as the Koper curve). This presentation will discuss the research that produced this finding, its foundation in deterrence theory, and its theoretical and practical implications. The presentation will also review the results and implications of more recent field experiments testing this strategy.

Author

• Christopher Koper, George Mason University