Trends in Sentence Length and Time Served: A Case Study of Pennsylvania from the mid-1980s to the Present

• In Event: Analyzing Changing Tends in Incarceration by Race and Offense

Abstract

Most studies of the causes of the dramatic rise in the imprisonment rate since the early 1970s include more punitive sentencing among the primary causes. This study revisits this contention using data on time served in prison from Pennsylvania. Using more complete and detailed data from admissions cohorts than typically available, the research examines trends in sentences and time served for eight major crime types from the mid-1980s through 2013. Further, this study uses a unique method of handling censored data, a common pitfall in trend analyses. Preliminary findings suggest there have been few changes in trends in time served or sentences imposed, with the exception of violent offenses. Implications for sentencing and the prison population are discussed.

Authors

• Daniel Nagin, Carnegie Mellon University

• Lindsay Bostwick, Carnegie Mellon University