The Logic of a Criminal Investigation

• In Event: Police Interrogations and Investigations

Abstract

Contrary to fictional depictions, criminal investigations are not always resolved through careful analysis and clear logic. Consequently, flawed thinking often underlies the proximate causes of wrongful convictions and criminal investigative failures. Incorrect assumptions, tunnel vision, groupthink, and other cognitive biases and organizational traps can easily hinder evidentiary interpretation and evaluation in a criminal investigation. This presentation outlines a four-step protocol for rethinking an unsolved case: (1) evidence; (2) interpretation; (3) patterns; and (4) analysis. A Bayesian approach is used as the underlying framework for determining evidence diagnosticity, and distinguishing certainties, probabilities, and possibilities.

Author

• Kim Rossmo, Texas State University