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Deterrence theory conceptualizes sanction perceptions as a form of knowledge acquired from outside sources. This theoretical understanding of sanction perceptions also underpins many criminal justice policies. The specific assumption is that individuals develop and update their perceptions of punishment risk in response to exposure to various interpersonal, experiential, and environmental influences. It is also assumed that as individuals become more informed, or as the information they possess becomes more consistent, their confidence in their sanction perceptions increases. Prior research on the determinants of sanction perceptions has thus been characterized by a restricted focus on external factors such as personal and vicarious experience with crime and punishment, media consumption, and objective punishment levels. Drawing on dual-process theories of reasoning, the current study proposes an alternative account of sanction perceptions. We hypothesize that individuals’ perceptions of punishment risk, and their confidence in those perceptions, may both stem, at least in part, from psychological sources and dispositional traits. We provide an initial test of this hypothesis using data from two recent national surveys.