Trajectories of Rule of Law and the Role of Demographic Structure, Economic Performance, and Political Governance

• In Event: The Violation and Defense of Rule of Law Across Time

Abstract

Although national and international programs to promote the rule of law across the globe have mushroomed, evidence-based knowledge about what factors ensure success, and why, remains scarce. This study sets out to empirically identify shared and idiosyncratic trajectories of rule of law among nations and the structural factors that maintain these paths. Longitudinal data from a number of transnational organizations will be concatenated and analyzed in this study. The sample will comprise of 215 countries for the 1996-2012 period. The measure of ‘rule of law’ will be obtained from World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators program. Both fixed effects and random-effects models will determine key predictors for the change in rule of law after accounting for the unobserved and observed heterogeneity among countries. Latent growth curves will model repeated measures of rule of law as a function of time and other indicators of demographic structure, economic performance, and political governance. This analysis will bring a topic of grand rhetorical appeal and political urgency down to earth for empirical testing. Reflections on the findings will guide further research and practice.

Authors

• Hung-En Sung, John Jay College of Criminal Justice

• Chongmin Na, John Jay College of Criminal Justice